The short version
- Qahwah House has suspended its planned Toronto expansion due to uncertainty surrounding new US tariffs on Canadian imports.
- Detroit region visitation from Canada has dropped approximately thirty percent since early 2025, with Ottawa implementing reciprocal sanctions in September.
- Despite political tensions, many long-standing cross-border customer relationships remain intact, though some Canadians are choosing to support local businesses instead.
The deterioration of diplomatic and economic relations between the United States and Canada has created significant operational challenges for Arab American business owners in Michigan. In Dearborn, a suburb with the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, entrepreneurs who rely on cross-border commerce are reassessing their growth strategies. The uncertainty stems from recent trade policies, including fifty percent tariffs on Canadian imports announced by the Trump administration in July, which have cast doubt on the feasibility of expanding operations north of the border.
Qahwah House, a prominent chain of Yemeni cafes with thirty-two locations nationwide, illustrates this hesitation. The company had prepared all necessary registrations and licenses to open a branch in Toronto, a city with a substantial Arab descent population. However, marketing director Mohamed Ahmed stated that the firm is holding off on the expansion until the political and economic landscape stabilizes. Approximately ten percent of the chain’s revenue in Dearborn comes from Canadian customers, making the volatility in bilateral relations a direct financial concern.
The broader economic impact in the region is measurable. Brett McWethy of Visit Detroit reported that visitation to the Detroit area from Canada fell by roughly thirty percent starting in early 2025 and has remained at that reduced level. This decline follows an initial round of tariff disputes last year, which already strained cross-border travel and commerce. The situation intensified in September when Ottawa announced reciprocal sanctions on US imports, effective September 8. Diplomatic talks held the previous month failed to resolve the differences between the two nations.
Dearborn’s culinary scene has long attracted visitors from Ontario, particularly from Windsor, a city of about twenty-five thousand people of Arab descent located just across the Detroit River. For decades, residents of Windsor have traveled south for dining experiences that are not readily available in their own community. The proximity allows for frequent cross-border movement, with many Canadians making the short drive to enjoy Lebanese and Yemeni cuisine in Dearborn’s restaurants.
However, the political climate is influencing consumer behavior in complex ways. Robert Nelson, a history professor at the University of Windsor who studies food dynamics across borders, noted that informal surveys reveal a split in the local Canadian population. While some Arab Canadians continue to visit Dearborn due to family ties or work obligations, others are deliberately reducing their travel to support local businesses in Ontario as a form of symbolic opposition to US trade policies.
Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, individual business owners report mixed results regarding customer loyalty. Khader Masri, who has operated Masri Sweets on Schaefer Road for over thirty-five years, observes that his known Canadian clientele largely remains unaffected by the political commotion. He noted that specific families continue to make the trip from places like London, Ontario, prioritizing their personal connections and dining preferences over broader geopolitical disputes.
The automotive industry, a cornerstone of Michigan’s economy, is also feeling the pressure. Ford Motor Company, which employs thousands at its Rouge plant in Dearborn, along with other manufacturers, has been impacted by the tariff war. The interconnected nature of the supply chain means that disruptions in trade flow have ripple effects throughout the local economy, affecting not just large corporations but also small businesses that depend on a healthy regional economic environment.
Cultural ties continue to complicate the narrative of separation. Recent events, such as the performance of the Canadian national anthem by The Barenaked Ladies at an NFL game in Buffalo, have drawn criticism from rightwing media in the US, highlighting the cultural friction accompanying the trade dispute. Yet, Nelson argues that punishing small business owners who depend on cross-border customers is a difficult stance to justify, given how deeply intertwined the lives of residents on both sides of the Detroit River remain.
As negotiations stall and sanctions take effect, businesses in Dearborn are adopting a wait-and-see approach. The immediate future for cross-border commerce remains unclear, with entrepreneurs balancing the desire for growth against the risks posed by an unstable trade environment. While some customers continue to cross the border out of habit or necessity, the overall trend suggests a cooling in commercial activity that could have lasting implications for the region’s diverse economic landscape.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian US Politics↗‘So much uncertainty’: Michigan’s Arab American businesses navigate Trump’s Canada trade war
