The short version
- Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, breaking a decades-long trend where the initial winner proceeds to victory.
- Structural economic shifts in cities like Osasco have replaced industrial union bases with service and gig workers who feel disconnected from traditional leftist platforms.
- Voter frustration over inflation, high taxes, and perceived political stagnation drove significant abstention rates and defections from President Lula’s coalition.
The first round of Brazil’s presidential election has concluded with a result that defies historical precedent. Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, secured the top position in the initial vote. This outcome marks a significant departure from Brazilian electoral history, as every winner of the first round since 1989 has gone on to win the presidency. The victory sets the stage for a runoff against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, introducing substantial uncertainty into what was widely viewed as a likely re-election campaign for the left-wing leader.
The shift in voter sentiment appears rooted in profound structural changes within Brazil’s working class. In municipalities such as Osasco, once a hub of heavy industry, shuttered factories have been replaced by shopping malls and technology companies associated with delivery apps. This transformation has altered the demographic profile of the electorate. Traditional industrial workers, who formed the backbone of Lula’s support through union organizing, are increasingly outnumbered by service sector employees and gig economy participants. Union leaders acknowledge that their organizations struggle to adapt to this new reality, describing themselves as stuck in an outdated era while the workforce moves toward more individualized forms of employment.
Local union officials express concern over the erosion of collective bargaining power. Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers’ union leader in Osasco, notes that the region has undergone strong deindustrialization. The disappearance of metal, chemical, and textile manufacturing has left a void that traditional labor movements have not filled. Instead, workers are engaging in what Almazan terms 'Uber-isation,' including driving for ride-share services, delivering food, or operating small informal businesses. These workers often prioritize flexibility and autonomy over the welfare programs and collective action models championed by Lula’s administration.
Voter frustration with economic conditions has played a critical role in this realignment. Many residents cite high prices, inflation, and heavy tax burdens as primary drivers for switching allegiance or abstaining from voting. Tairine, a street vendor who previously avoided the polls to evade fines for non-compliance, plans to vote for Bolsonaro this year. She argues that despite Lula’s return to power, her financial situation has not improved, noting that taxes on everyday goods make it difficult for low-income individuals to manage rising costs. This sentiment reflects a broader crisis of expectations, where statistical improvements in poverty and unemployment have not translated into perceived economic relief for many households.
Political analysts suggest that Lula’s previous successes may have inadvertently contributed to his current vulnerability. Richard Lapper, an author who has written biographies of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, describes the incumbent as a victim of his own achievements. While unemployment reached record lows and Brazil was removed from the United Nations Hunger Map during Lula’s term, high interest rates and household debt continue to weigh on consumers. The disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and daily financial struggles has created an environment where voters feel that nothing has fundamentally changed, despite official progress metrics.
The election also saw historically high abstention rates, with 33 million people failing to vote in the first round. This is the highest level of non-participation since 1998, indicating deep disillusionment with the political process. While some voters actively switched to Bolsonaro seeking change, others simply disengaged from a system they view as corrupt or ineffective. Bolsonaro supporters often struggle to articulate specific policy preferences but express a strong desire for a different direction, citing frustration with crime, corruption, and economic mismanagement. Even though Bolsonaro himself faces corruption allegations, which he denies, his candidacy represents an alternative to the status quo for many weary voters.
Robson, a municipal civil servant originally from Lula’s home state of Pernambuco, exemplifies this shift among traditional supporters. He blames the current government for fiscal deficits and excessive public spending, arguing that citizens are forced to choose between debt payments and basic necessities. His defection highlights how economic anxiety is cutting across regional and historical loyalties. In some areas, Lula lost votes compared to 2022 even though Bolsonaro did not surpass his father’s previous totals, suggesting that the incumbent’s decline is as much about voter apathy and fragmentation as it is about a surge in right-wing support.
As the campaign moves toward the runoff, Lula’s team faces the challenge of mobilizing hundreds of thousands of supporters who may remain disengaged. Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while maintaining some flagship welfare programs, attempting to balance fiscal conservatism with social protection. The coming weeks will test whether Lula can re-engage his traditional base or if the structural changes in Brazil’s labor market and voter psychology have permanently altered the political landscape. The outcome will depend on which coalition can most effectively address the immediate economic pressures facing ordinary Brazilians.
The implications of this first-round result extend beyond the immediate election. It signals a potential realignment of Brazilian politics, where traditional class-based voting patterns are giving way to more fragmented and issue-driven allegiances. The decline of manufacturing and the rise of the gig economy have created a new electorate that does not fit neatly into existing political categories. Both candidates must now navigate this complex terrain, appealing to voters who are skeptical of both established institutions and radical change. The runoff will ultimately determine whether Brazil’s political center holds or shifts further in response to these deep-seated socioeconomic transformations.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- BBC World↗How Brazil's changing working class is reshaping the presidential race
