The short version
- Oman’s foreign minister advocates for a non-aggression pact among Gulf states, Iran, and Iraq to replace reliance on US security guarantees.
- High-level officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan visited Tehran to discuss de-escalation amid fears of renewed conflict between the US and Iran.
- The proposal challenges long-standing US strategy by suggesting that external powers have complicated regional issues rather than resolving them.
Oman’s foreign minister delivered a significant address on Monday, arguing that the Middle East’s capacity to resolve its internal conflicts has been severely constrained by five decades of United States policy. Badr Albusaidi stated that American insistence on framing Iran as a primary security threat for Gulf states has created a deadlock regarding the region’s future. In his speech at Girton College in Cambridge, he called for a fundamental shift in how regional security is organized, moving away from external dependency toward collective local responsibility.
The core of Albusaidi’s proposal involves establishing a non-aggression security pact that includes all six Gulf Cooperation Council states, along with Iran and Iraq. Under this envisioned framework, the United States would no longer serve as the primary provider of security for the region. Albusaidi described the current situation as counterintuitive but necessary, noting that issues such as the management of the Strait of Hormuz have become unresolvable because external powers continue to dictate the terms of engagement while regional actors remain unable to reach consensus on their own security arrangements.
This diplomatic push coincides with high-level defense and intelligence officials from Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia traveling to Tehran. The delegation’s mission was aimed at preventing a renewed outbreak of fighting between the United States and Iran. Tehran reported that these discussions also explored future security arrangements for the broader region. The presence of Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman in Tehran is particularly notable, occurring only weeks after Iranian strikes targeted Saudi infrastructure and while Houthi forces continue to launch missiles toward Riyadh.
Albusaidi’s remarks mark a departure from traditional Gulf state positions, as he is the first leader from the region to explicitly call for a security alliance that includes Iran. He argued that Iran has been systematically excluded from meaningful participation in regional security arrangements for fifty years, leading to negative consequences for both Tehran and its neighbors. According to Albusaidi, this exclusion was driven by an externally imposed perception of fundamental antagonism between Iran and the Arab Gulf states, a narrative he characterized as false and damaging to regional stability.
The foreign minister indirectly challenged the rationale for further military action against Iran by referencing previous negotiations mediated by Oman in February. He maintained that those talks were making significant progress and that an agreement was within reach, a judgment he stated Oman still upholds. This perspective contrasts with ongoing Pentagon briefings regarding a major US military buildup in preparation for potential assaults following midterm elections. The tension is further heightened by reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be seeking to provoke conflict before upcoming Israeli elections.
The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with Qatar also engaging in mediation efforts in Tehran to secure terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While no Gulf state openly supported previous US-Israeli attacks on Iran, some have reportedly cooperated covertly in those operations. In response, Iran has sought to defend itself by targeting US bases and energy infrastructure located within Gulf countries. This cycle of action and reaction underscores the complexity of the security environment that Albusaidi aims to address through his proposed pact.
Implementing such a security arrangement faces significant hurdles. The idea of integrating Iran into a regional security framework is likely to meet resistance across much of the Middle East, given the economic damage Tehran has inflicted directly or through proxies like the Houthis. Hardline factions within Iran continue to advocate for aggressive postures, complicating diplomatic efforts. Furthermore, the heavy presence of US military bases in Gulf countries remains a contentious issue, with some questioning whether these installations provide reassurance or instead serve as targets that increase insecurity.
The debate over regional security architecture is likely to intensify as Gulf states weigh the risks and benefits of reducing reliance on American guarantees. Albusaidi’s speech highlights a growing sentiment that external powers have made regional issues more intractable rather than solving them. As diplomatic efforts continue in Tehran, the success of any new security pact will depend on the ability of regional actors to overcome deep-seated mistrust and establish mechanisms for collective responsibility. The outcome of these negotiations could redefine the balance of power in the Middle East for years to come.
Observers note that the timing of these diplomatic moves is critical, with multiple elections and military posturing creating a precarious environment. The involvement of diverse regional powers, including Turkey and Pakistan, suggests a broadening coalition interested in stabilizing the region without direct US intervention. However, the path forward remains uncertain, as historical grievances and current hostilities pose significant obstacles to any lasting agreement. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this new diplomatic initiative can gain traction or if it will falter amid ongoing tensions.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian World↗Middle East peace held back by US insistence that Iran is a threat, Oman’s foreign minister says
