The short version
- Earth's energy imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began, with heat accumulation accelerating significantly in recent decades.
- Ocean temperatures and sea levels are setting records, while polar ice and glaciers continue to lose mass at alarming rates.
- Scientists warn that current trends suggest the 1.5C warming limit could be permanently breached within two years, challenging previous climate projections.
The United Nations weather agency has issued a stark assessment of the planet's changing climate, reporting that heat is building up in Earth’s systems at an accelerating pace. This finding coincides with the start of the Cop31 climate summit in Turkey, where global leaders are gathering to address the escalating crisis. The World Meteorological Organization stated that the disparity between solar energy entering the atmosphere and heat radiating back into space has reached its peak since records began. This growing imbalance is identified as a primary driver behind the intensification of extreme weather phenomena, including severe droughts, tropical cyclones, and prolonged heatwaves.
Data from the first nine months of 2026 indicates that global average surface temperatures were approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. This figure places the current year on track to rank among the four warmest years ever recorded. The period from 2023 to 2026 is now recognized as the hottest four-year span in modern history. While La Niña conditions at the start of the year typically exert a cooling influence, reducing global averages by roughly 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius, these effects are being overwhelmed by broader warming trends. A developing El Niño phenomenon, which is projected to be stronger than any observed in the past millennium, is expected to push final annual temperatures even higher.
The oceans continue to bear the brunt of this excess energy, absorbing approximately 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases. Sea surface temperatures have set monthly records throughout the year, and global sea levels remain at their highest point since monitoring commenced. The year 2026 is poised to mark a tenth consecutive year of record-breaking ocean heat content. Measurements from the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean show that heat accumulation in 2025 was the highest ever observed and continues to accelerate. Experts note that this warming trend is likely irreversible on timescales ranging from centuries to millennia.
The rate at which Earth’s energy imbalance is growing has increased markedly over time. Between 1960 and 2025, the imbalance rose by an average of 0.13 watts per square meter each decade. However, for the period spanning 2001 to 2025, this rate more than doubled to 0.3 watts per square meter per decade. This acceleration suggests that natural feedback mechanisms are now amplifying warming effects more rapidly than they did two decades ago. The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a key factor; levels have risen by 53 percent since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, jumping from 356.42 parts per million in 1992 to 426.8 parts per million in 2025.
Impacts on the cryosphere are also severe and widespread. Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest annual maximum extent in 2026, while Arctic sea ice hit either its lowest or second-lowest maximum. Glaciers worldwide lost more than 400 gigatonnes of mass, marking the fourth consecutive year that all nineteen monitored glacierized regions experienced significant loss. These changes underscore the pervasive nature of global heating, which affects every major component of the Earth's climate system. The persistence of these trends highlights the difficulty in stabilizing the climate even as international negotiations proceed.
Prominent climate scientists have expressed deep concern regarding the trajectory indicated by these reports. Bill McGuire, a professor emeritus at University College London, described the findings as unsurprising but dire, noting that every metric points to a worsening situation. He emphasized that the growing energy imbalance is a more accurate indicator of future heating than emissions data alone, as it accounts for the heat already retained by the planet. According to McGuire, current research suggests that the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit could be permanently exceeded as early as 2028.
Projections for long-term warming have also become more pessimistic. With the planet currently heating at a rate of approximately 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade, some experts believe that surpassing the 2-degree Celsius threshold in the late 2030s is a distinct possibility. Previous estimates suggesting a global temperature rise of 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century are now viewed by some scientists as overly optimistic or even implausible given the current acceleration. The UN Secretary-General has warned that the human costs of these changes are rising, with vulnerable populations suffering the most severe consequences despite contributing least to the problem.
As diplomats convene in Antalya, the data presented by the WMO serves as a critical backdrop for negotiations. The report underscores the urgency of addressing the root causes of climate change while adapting to the inevitable impacts already locked in. The acceleration of heat accumulation and the frequency of extreme weather events present immediate challenges for global security, food systems, and public health. The coming days at Cop31 will likely focus on how nations can respond to this new reality of intensified climate extremes.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian US↗‘A new age of climate extremes’: Earth accumulating heat at accelerating rate
