The short version
- A senior Ukrainian adviser warns that the current trajectory of long-range strikes risks destroying both nations' economies and infrastructure without a clear victor.
- Ukraine plans to significantly increase nightly drone operations against Russian targets, including efforts to disrupt commercial aviation, while facing shortages in critical air defense systems.
- Russia is accelerating production of advanced jet-powered drones and missiles, potentially incorporating artificial intelligence to bypass existing electronic countermeasures.
The nature of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shifted decisively toward a war of infrastructure and long-range strikes, creating a scenario where neither side can claim total victory but both face severe economic devastation. Serhii Beskrestnov, a defense technology adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, characterized the current state of affairs as a deadlock on the frontline that has spilled over into cities hundreds of miles away from active combat zones. He argued that continuing this cycle of mutual destruction is irrational, noting that both countries will emerge with shattered economies and broken infrastructure if hostilities persist.
Beskrestnov, who operates under the call sign Flash, expressed particular concern for the upcoming winter months in Kyiv. He suggested that city authorities should consider evacuating elderly residents to mitigate potential humanitarian crises if Russian bombardment disables the capital’s energy supply. While he clarified that these were not official government directives, his warnings highlight the growing vulnerability of civilian populations to sustained attacks on electricity, water, and heating systems. The risk is compounded by Russia’s stated intent to prepare for mass strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities, a policy recently reaffirmed by President Vladimir Putin.
In response to the escalating threat, Ukraine is planning to intensify its own offensive capabilities. Beskrestnov revealed that Kyiv aims to launch approximately 1,000 drones per night against military and economic targets within Russia, a significant increase from the current rate of roughly 300. This strategy includes efforts to halt commercial air traffic in Russia by flying drones near airports, forcing closures without necessarily attacking the facilities directly. The goal is to impose costs on the Russian economy and disrupt its logistical networks, mirroring the pressure Moscow has applied to Ukrainian infrastructure.
However, Ukraine faces significant challenges in defending against these reciprocal attacks. Beskrestnov noted that offensive weapons have become more powerful than defensive systems, with air defenses struggling to keep pace with the volume of missiles and drones deployed by both sides. A critical shortage of US Patriot interceptors, which are essential for stopping high-speed ballistic missiles, remains a pressing issue. Although President Zelenskyy has sought to secure 300 additional interceptors for the winter, Beskrestnov expressed uncertainty about whether sufficient supplies can be obtained from abroad in time to prevent a crisis.
The technological landscape of the war is also evolving rapidly, with Russia demonstrating advancements in drone production and capabilities. Moscow has increased its output of jet-powered Shahed drones, firing 2,500 in August compared to 1,500 in July. These newer models, powered by Chinese-made jet engines, can travel at speeds exceeding 320 kilometers per hour, outpacing earlier generations of interceptors. Beskrestnov indicated that Russia plans to manufacture approximately 36,000 of these jet-powered drones in 2027, alongside 30,000 slower piston-engine variants and thousands of new cruise missiles, significantly boosting its capacity for sustained bombardment.
Perhaps most concerning is the potential integration of artificial intelligence into Russian drone operations. Ukrainian investigators have identified instances where Molniya drones were guided by AI rather than traditional radio signals, rendering standard jamming techniques ineffective. Beskrestnov warned that it is only a matter of time before this technology is installed in larger Shahed drones, which could neutralize Ukraine’s extensive electronic warfare network. While Ukraine is developing its own autonomous drone prototypes, Beskrestnov acknowledged that Russia currently possesses greater scale and capability in this domain.
The adviser’s assessment underscores a grim reality: the war has entered a phase where technological escalation outpaces diplomatic resolution. With both sides locked in an arms race of drones and missiles, the immediate future looks increasingly dangerous for civilians on both sides of the border. Beskrestnov emphasized that while Ukraine has proposed stopping the war, Russia has shown no willingness to halt its offensive operations. The coming months will likely test the resilience of Ukrainian infrastructure and the effectiveness of international support in mitigating the growing threat of widespread destruction.
As the conflict continues, the focus remains on balancing offensive pressure with defensive survival. Ukraine’s strategy relies on disrupting Russian economic targets while desperately seeking air defense assets to protect its own population. The disparity in production capacity and technological innovation poses a significant challenge for Kyiv, particularly as Russia ramps up manufacturing of advanced weaponry. The outcome of this phase of the war will depend heavily on whether external aid can bridge the gap in defensive capabilities before the winter strikes reach their peak intensity.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian US↗‘Nobody will win’: Zelenskyy adviser warns of mutual destruction if war with Russia continues
