The short version
- Temperatures are expected to normalize to late September averages after a period of unseasonable heat in southern England.
- A developing low pressure system will likely deliver significant rainfall and wind to northern and western parts of the UK next week.
- Eastern regions, including parts of England and Wales still affected by drought, may see little to no relief from the incoming weather systems.
The United Kingdom is preparing for a distinct shift in atmospheric conditions as a deep area of low pressure approaches from the Atlantic Ocean. This developing system is forecast to introduce a period of windy and unsettled weather next week, marking a departure from the relatively stable patterns seen recently. While some areas will experience heavy rainfall, particularly in the west, other regions further east may remain largely unaffected by the precipitation.
Before this stormy front arrives, many locations are expected to see temperatures rise above seasonal averages. In south-east England, readings could reach the low-20s Celsius, offering a final burst of warmth before the cooler air moves in. This brief period of heat follows an unusual stretch of unseasonable warmth that has characterized much of the past week, particularly in southern regions.
The transition to more typical late September conditions is already underway in some parts of the country. A weak weather front brought cooler air to Scotland and Northern Ireland earlier in the week, while warm and humid conditions persisted in southern England and south Wales. Over the weekend, temperatures across the UK are expected to settle into a range between roughly 15 and 21 degrees Celsius, varying from north to south.
Saturday is likely to bring sunshine and pleasant warmth for many, though western areas may encounter scattered showers. By Sunday, rain spells are expected to sweep across most of the country, signaling the arrival of the more active weather pattern. The contrast between the sunny intervals and incoming precipitation highlights the changeable nature of the current forecast.
Looking ahead to the final days of September, there are no indications of further unseasonable heat. While some pleasantly warm and sunny days may still occur during the first half of next week, the overall pattern is expected to be highly variable. Northern and western areas, in particular, could face much windier conditions as the low pressure system moves through.
Rainfall distribution over the coming five days is projected to be uneven. The bulk of the precipitation will fall in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the western parts of England and Wales. In contrast, central and eastern England may see very little rain, with some locations potentially remaining completely dry throughout the period.
This disparity in rainfall raises concerns for areas still grappling with drought conditions. Significant portions of England and Wales have experienced prolonged dry spells and require substantial rainfall to alleviate water stress. However, current forecasts suggest that these eastern regions may not receive meaningful relief from the incoming storm systems.
The variability in September’s weather so far has been stark. In parts of north-west Scotland, rainfall has already reached 146% of the expected monthly total, with some locations like Achnagart in Highland experiencing rain for 27 consecutive days. Conversely, eastern England has seen significantly below-average precipitation, with Bridlington in East Yorkshire recording just 11% of its expected September rainfall.
Research indicates that ending drought conditions in affected areas may require at least seven months of relentless rain, a threshold that the current forecast does not meet for eastern regions. As the low pressure systems continue to influence the weather, the divide between wet western areas and dry eastern zones is likely to persist, complicating efforts to restore normal water levels across the country.
Meteorologists advise residents to monitor local forecasts closely as conditions evolve. The approaching storm system brings both opportunities for much-needed rain in some areas and potential disruption from wind and heavy showers in others. For those in drought-affected regions, the lack of significant forecasted rainfall underscores the ongoing challenges faced by communities dependent on reliable water supplies.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- BBC News↗Weekend of mixed UK weather with sunshine before showers arrive for some on Sunday
