The short version
- The UK has not recorded any named storms for the current season despite it being mid-October, a delay that is statistically common but notable given recent drought conditions.
- Persistent high pressure and a jet stream positioned to the north-west have diverted deep Atlantic lows away from the British Isles, resulting in warmer-than-average temperatures and reduced rainfall.
- Southern England faces severe drought declarations with critically low reservoir levels, while Scotland and Northern Ireland have absorbed most of the limited precipitation this autumn.
The United Kingdom has entered mid-October without recording a single named storm for the current season, marking a distinct departure from the turbulent weather often associated with this time of year. While the absence of severe gales might suggest a benign autumn, the prevailing atmospheric conditions have instead contributed to worsening drought issues in several regions. Deep low-pressure systems originating in the Atlantic, which typically drive wet and windy weather, have been consistently steered away from the British Isles by dominant areas of high pressure.
This unusual quiet is largely attributed to the positioning of the jet stream, a narrow band of fast-moving winds high in the atmosphere that plays a critical role in delivering storm systems. Normally, as autumn progresses and polar temperatures drop, the increased contrast with warmer tropical regions energizes the jet stream, directing it toward the UK. However, this season the jet stream has remained predominantly to the north or north-west of the country. This positioning has allowed south-westerly winds to dominate, bringing warmer than normal conditions and limiting the influence of stormy low-pressure systems.
The consequences of this atmospheric setup have been uneven across the nation. While parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland have experienced heavier rainfall, much of England and Wales has remained significantly drier than historical averages. In Herefordshire, for example, precipitation levels by mid-October were only one-tenth of what is typically expected for that period. The most severe impacts have been felt in southern England, where exceptionally low reservoir levels have prompted the Environment Agency to declare severe drought conditions in certain areas, raising concerns about water supply and agricultural stability.
Despite the current calm, meteorological models suggest a shift is imminent. Forecasts indicate that the jet stream’s position and strength are expected to change over the coming week, allowing deeper low-pressure systems to penetrate further into the UK. This transition could mark the beginning of more widespread wet and windy weather, potentially bringing the first widely disruptive storm of the season later in the week. Residents and officials are advised to monitor updates closely as the potential for significant weather events increases.
Looking beyond the immediate forecast, longer-term signals point toward a more active period later in the autumn and into early winter. The Met Office’s three-month outlook for October, November, and December predicts double the normal chance of wetter weather and 1.3 times the normal likelihood of windier conditions. These projections align with patterns observed during previous El Niño events, which are currently strengthening in the Pacific Ocean. As El Niño intensifies, it is expected to influence global weather patterns, including increased storminess in the UK.
The practice of naming storms in the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands began in 2015 to help publicize severe weather events and encourage preparedness. Storms are named when potentially damaging winds, flooding rain, or disruptive snow are forecast. Although named storms can occur at any time of year, they are most frequent during the winter months of December, January, and February. Analysis of data since the naming scheme began shows that storms are less common in spring and early summer, with May being the only month to have gone without a named storm in the eleven-year history of the program.
It is not uncommon for the first named storm of the season to arrive after November 1. In approximately half of the years since 2015, the initial storm did not occur until late autumn or early winter. The storm-naming season officially begins in September each year, coinciding with the gradual increase in storminess as summer transitions into autumn. While the current lack of named storms may seem anomalous, it fits within historical variability, even as the underlying drought conditions highlight the significant impacts of prolonged dry spells.
As the season progresses, the interplay between high-pressure systems and the shifting jet stream will determine whether the UK experiences a rapid onset of storm activity or a continued period of relative calm. The strengthening El Niño phenomenon adds another layer of complexity to weather forecasting, suggesting that while the start of the season has been quiet, the latter half may bring increased volatility. Understanding these atmospheric dynamics is crucial for managing the risks associated with both drought and potential flooding as winter approaches.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- BBC Science & Environment↗Why hasn't the UK had any named storms yet?
