The short version
- Rahil Prakash, a 21-year-old recent college graduate, admitted to creating Median Strategies, a website that published fake polling data for several high-profile elections.
- The fabricated numbers were cited by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and shared by media outlets before the site shut down following scrutiny from journalists.
- Political consultants condemned the act as deception rather than research, highlighting concerns about the ease with which bad actors could manipulate public perception.
A recent college graduate has revealed that he single-handedly operated a website responsible for disseminating fabricated election polling data across multiple states, including California, Wisconsin, and Nevada. The site, known as Median Strategies, abruptly ceased operations and retracted its published numbers earlier this week after facing questions from a reporter with the Los Angeles Times. In an unsigned statement posted before the shutdown, the entity described the project as a short-term social experiment designed to test how easily false polling information could infiltrate and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.
Rahil Prakash, identified by The Guardian through domain registration data and digital forensics, confirmed his role in creating the website during a phone interview. He stated that his primary motivation was to determine whether fake polls could penetrate the media landscape with such ease. Prakash expressed surprise at the speed and extent of the dissemination, noting that he did not anticipate the California political press would pick up the data on their own. He apologized directly to the campaigns of Karen Bass, Nithya Raman, and Francesca Hong for the disruption caused by the false information.
The impact of the fabricated data was immediate in several key races. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass publicly touted polling numbers from Median Strategies that suggested she held a lead of more than ten percentage points over her challenger, Nithya Raman, in the upcoming mayoral election. The California Post also cited these figures. In Wisconsin, the fake poll indicated that Francesca Hong had led the Democratic primary for governor by more than twenty points, despite her eventual loss in the race. Additionally, a fabricated survey showed Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo with a five-point advantage heading into the general election.
While some entities amplified the data, others remained skeptical. A widely followed polling aggregator on the social media platform X shared the group’s Nevada poll, but several credible polling organizations refused to aggregate Median Strategies’ numbers because they could not verify the methodology behind them. This divergence highlights the varying standards of verification within the political information ecosystem. Prakash noted that he created the website using artificial intelligence and acted alone, emphasizing that no individual involved received financial compensation or benefit from the project.
Prakash explained that his interest in testing this theory stemmed from a significant polling miss during the Michigan Senate primary. In that race, polls had shown Abdul El-Sayed with a heavy lead over Haley Stevens, but El-Sayed ultimately won by a much smaller margin than predicted. This discrepancy inspired Prakash to investigate how quickly inaccurate information could spread once it entered the public sphere. He observed that making the data look visually appealing was sufficient for it to gain traction, raising concerns about the potential for more sophisticated operations in the future.
The American Association of Political Consultants strongly condemned the effort, rejecting the characterization of the project as a social experiment. The association described the publication of fabricated survey data as independent research as a deception directed at voters, the press, and campaigns that rely on public data to make strategic decisions. This criticism underscores the professional community’s concern about the integrity of political polling and the potential for bad actors to manipulate public perception without facing immediate consequences.
Digital forensics played a crucial role in identifying Prakash as the operator behind Median Strategies. The Guardian traced domain registration data tied to the website, reverse-searching nameservers to identify other domains using the same infrastructure. While most domains were unrelated, one matched the registrar and nameservers of Median Strategies. Although that matching website now displays only a GitHub 404 error message, additional web records linked it to a GitHub profile containing files with Prakash’s name. This technical trail provided the evidence needed to connect the anonymous site to its creator.
Prakash denied any involvement in trading on prediction markets after publishing the sham data, stating clearly that he did not engage in such activities. He emphasized that the project was not funded, commissioned, or directed by any campaign, party, media outlet, or other outside entity. His goal, according to his own account, was to provide a lesson on the vulnerabilities of the current system and to highlight the need for greater seriousness in verifying political information. The incident serves as a stark reminder of the challenges facing journalists and analysts in an era where digital tools can easily generate convincing but false data.
As the dust settles on this episode, questions remain about how media organizations and campaigns can better protect themselves from similar deceptions. The ease with which Prakash’s fake polls spread suggests that current verification processes may be insufficient to handle sophisticated disinformation campaigns. While Prakash claims his intent was educational, the real-world impact on candidates and voters raises serious ethical concerns. The political community is now left to grapple with the implications of a system where a single individual can disrupt multiple high-profile elections with minimal resources.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian US Politics↗Website behind widely shared fake election polls run by 21-year-old