The short version
- Satellite data indicates significant excavation and repair work at key Iranian missile bases including Garmdareh, Shahroud, and Parchin.
- Experts interpret the construction as an effort to move production facilities underground to protect them from aerial bombardment.
- The rebuilding efforts contradict US assertions that Iran’s military industrial base has been largely destroyed, raising questions about future conflict risks.
Recent satellite imagery reveals substantial construction activity near several major Iranian missile sites, suggesting a concerted effort to repair damage inflicted by months of United States and Israeli air strikes. Analysts from the British intelligence firm MAIAR identified evidence of digging and new structures at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj, located near Tehran, as well as at the Shahroud base in northern Iran. These findings indicate that Iranian forces are actively working to restore capabilities at facilities that have been targeted repeatedly since the onset of hostilities.
Beyond these two primary locations, signs of repair work are visible at at least twelve other military installations across the country. At the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, near the Iraqi border, new roofs have been erected on previously destroyed buildings. Similarly, debris has been cleared from damaged structures at the Parchin military complex east of the capital, a site known for undergoing repeated repairs despite sustained aerial attacks. The scope of these activities suggests a systematic approach to maintaining operational readiness rather than isolated maintenance efforts.
Experts suggest that the excavation work observed near Shahroud may be linked to missile production activities. Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst specializing in Iran, noted that because the nearby air base has been targeted multiple times in recent years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is likely attempting to relocate production facilities underground. This strategy aligns with a broader pattern identified by MAIAR analysts, who observed that Tehran frequently moves infrastructure below ground to shield it from further strikes. Such measures make it significantly more difficult for external observers to accurately assess the extent and operational status of Iran’s military assets.
At the Parchin complex, specifically at the Taleghan 2 facility, satellite images appear to show that significant construction has been completed. Damaged buildings have been leveled, and the aftermath of attacks on an underground bunker has been repaired and reinforced with concrete. In Karaj, multiple vehicles were visible in recent imagery, alongside improvements made to the nearby airbase. Sam Lair, a research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, stated that images from Karaj appear to show a new portal for an underground facility, further supporting the theory that Iran is expanding its subterranean military infrastructure.
The nature of this construction work appears genuine rather than deceptive. Sean O’Connor, an analyst with the intelligence firm Janes, argued that such projects are unlikely to be part of an effort to mislead foreign intelligence agencies. He noted that creating false targets would be costly and achieve little strategic value. Instead, the developments reflect a serious commitment to rebuilding military capability. Mark Cancian, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that activity related to military assets indicates Tehran is bracing itself for further attacks by the US and Israel.
These findings stand in contrast to official statements from Washington regarding the effectiveness of recent military campaigns. A Pentagon spokesperson previously claimed that the United States had destroyed up to 90 percent of Iran’s drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base, significantly degrading the country’s ability to launch attacks. President Donald Trump has similarly dismissed the Iranian armed forces as a complete mess. However, the visible reconstruction efforts challenge these assertions, suggesting that Iran retains more resilience than previously acknowledged by US officials.
Iranian state media has also highlighted its remaining capabilities. Footage broadcast this week claimed to show dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran. Previous broadcasts in August showed Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging from a tunnel near Bandar Abbas. Additionally, MAIAR analysts identified new construction and excavations outside tunnel entrances near Qom, close to the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex, which has also been bombed multiple times by US and Israeli forces.
The political context in Washington adds another layer of complexity to these developments. Speculation has grown that the United States might resume attacks on Iran following recent midterm elections. However, Vice President JD Vance cited the war’s unpopularity among voters as a factor in the Republican Party’s poor performance, suggesting it may have cost his party control of the Senate for the next six years. This political pressure could influence future military decisions, even as Iran continues to fortify its defenses.
Ultimately, the construction work signals a clear priority for Tehran: rebuilding military capability rather than focusing on economic rehabilitation. Mark Mellett, a defense analyst and former head of the Irish military, noted that underground facilities offer the added benefit of obscuring operational status from outside observers. As Iran continues to dig deeper and reinforce its sites, the potential for future conflict remains high, with both sides seemingly preparing for prolonged engagement rather than immediate de-escalation.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- BBC World↗Major construction ongoing near Iran missile bases, satellite images suggest
