The short version
- A recent survey reveals that half of Israeli voters believe the government should adjust its West Bank settlement policy to avoid escalating sanctions.
- The UK's trade ban on goods from settlements did not significantly influence voting behavior in the general election, with most Netanyahu supporters saying it had no effect.
- Support for policy changes is highest among opposition backers and Arab party supporters, while Netanyahu bloc voters largely favor maintaining the current course regardless of costs.
A new survey of Israeli public opinion suggests that a majority of citizens believe the government should modify its approach to West Bank settlements if the current trajectory leads to further international sanctions. The findings challenge earlier assumptions that foreign pressure, specifically from Western allies, would uniformly galvanize support for hardline political positions. Instead, the data indicates a nuanced landscape where economic concerns and fears of isolation are driving calls for diplomatic recalibration among a significant segment of the electorate.
The research, conducted by the Israeli social research group aChord, highlights a divergence between political affiliation and public sentiment regarding international relations. While critics had argued that the United Kingdom’s decision to impose a trade ban on goods from illegal settlements would drive voters toward Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, the survey found little evidence of such a decisive shift. Three-quarters of supporters for the Netanyahu-aligned bloc stated that UK sanctions and trade policies did not affect their voting decisions at all. For those whose votes were influenced, the impact was balanced, shifting some voters in both directions without creating a detectable net advantage for either side.
Awareness of the UK’s policy announcement was widespread, with just over three-quarters of respondents having heard about it. Most of those aware understood that the measures applied specifically to the West Bank rather than the entire state of Israel. Despite this clarity, support for the specific trade ban remains low. Approximately 63% of all surveyed individuals opposed the import ban on goods from settlements. Only a quarter expressed support for the measure, with some conditional backing contingent on assurances that the restrictions would not extend beyond settlement areas.
The survey underscores the importance of international relations to different voter demographics. For supporters of the Change bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, relations with Western nations were considered important or very important by 60% of respondents. However, even among this group, foreign ties ranked fifth in importance compared to other voting motives. In contrast, only 30% of Netanyahu bloc supporters cited Western relations as a significant factor. This disparity suggests that while the opposition is more attuned to diplomatic consequences, the base of the current government remains largely insulated from these considerations.
When asked about policy adjustments, a clear partisan divide emerged. Seventy-one percent of voters for the opposition Change bloc believed the Israeli government should adapt its settlements policy to prevent an escalation of sanctions. Conversely, only 14% of Netanyahu bloc supporters agreed with this assessment, with most advocating for the continuation of current policies regardless of the cost. Overall, a plurality of the general public—50%—supported adjusting settlement and construction policies in the West Bank to avoid international isolation. This support was particularly strong among backers of Arab parties.
The data also reveals that personal economic impact plays a crucial role in shaping opinions on sanctions. Concerns about foreign penalties intensify when voters perceive a direct threat to their financial well-being. Only 36% of all respondents agreed that settlement policies should continue if sanctions led to tangible hardships, such as higher interest rates, difficulties in transferring money abroad, or issues using credit cards overseas. The poll suggests a correlation between perceived personal damage and opposition to the settlement policy, indicating that abstract diplomatic concerns are less potent than immediate economic risks.
Hannah Weisfeld, director of the British-Jewish organization Yachad, interpreted the findings as evidence that the Israeli public recognizes the likelihood of external pressure if policy shifts do not occur domestically. She argued that the research highlights the importance of allies taking targeted actions against occupation practices to incentivize change. The survey also showed broad support for sanctions targeting individual violent settlers, with 52% of all Israelis backing such measures provided they are limited to those acting violently. However, this support drops significantly among Netanyahu bloc supporters, 70% of whom oppose foreign sanctions in any form.
These findings offer a snapshot of Israeli public sentiment at a time when international scrutiny of settlement activities is increasing. The lack of a unified backlash against the UK’s trade ban suggests that while nationalist rhetoric may dominate political discourse, many citizens are pragmatic about the costs of isolation. As diplomatic tensions persist, the gap between government policy and public willingness to bear economic consequences may widen, potentially influencing future political strategies and negotiations.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian World↗Most Israelis think settlements policy should change to avoid more sanctions, poll finds
