The short version
- Internal factionalism and court battles have left the Peoples Democratic Party without recognized candidates for the upcoming presidential race.
- The party has lost control of all thirty-six state governorships it once held, with recent defections to the ruling APC accelerating its decline.
- Analysts suggest that without a strategic alliance or internal restructuring, the PDP may remain politically irrelevant through the next election cycle.
The Peoples Democratic Party, which dominated Nigerian politics for sixteen years following the return to democracy in 1999, now confronts the possibility of political extinction. As the campaign for January’s general election officially begins, the party is paralyzed by a leadership dispute that has reached the courts, leaving it without a clear path to ballot access. This collapse marks a stark reversal from its status as an impregnable force, a position so secure in 2008 that its chairman predicted six decades of continuous governance.
The party’s decline began with its defeat in the 2015 federal election, when Muhammadu Buhari and the newly formed All Progressives Congress seized the presidency. That loss thrust the PDP into opposition, a role for which its national leaders were ill-prepared. Political analysts note that the party struggled to adapt to life outside the federal government, having become accustomed to the privileges and structures of power. This disorientation set the stage for deeper institutional fractures in subsequent years.
The year 2025 proved particularly devastating, characterized by a wave of defections and bitter internal conflicts. At the start of the year, the PDP still controlled eight state governorships. By December, five governors from Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa, and Rivers had switched allegiance to the ruling APC, citing the party’s declining viability and seeking better cooperation with federal authorities. The remaining three states were lost shortly thereafter, including Oyo state just last month, leaving the PDP with zero gubernatorial seats.
Compounding these losses was the departure of high-profile figures, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who left the party in 2025. Internal power struggles, factionalism, and disputes over regional rotation of power fueled disillusionment among members. The crisis intensified when a faction representing the majority of members held a contentious national convention in Ibadan in November 2025, despite court orders attempting to halt the event. This gathering expelled Nyesom Wike, a prominent member serving in President Bola Tinubu’s government.
Wike, who helped found the party, now heads a rival faction that has created a political standoff. Although observers view his group as a minority, the law recognizes it as the legitimate leadership of the PDP. Consequently, Wike’s faction has submitted its slate of presidential and parliamentary candidates to the electoral commission. This legal victory leaves the anti-Wike faction without representatives on the ballot, effectively silencing a significant portion of the party’s membership in the upcoming election.
Despite the chaos, some loyalists remain optimistic about the party’s future. Aminu Adamu, a politician aligned with the anti-Wike faction, points to historical precedents in Thailand and Argentina where parties recovered after long periods in the wilderness. He argues that by putting its internal affairs in order, the PDP could rebuild and become a major force again by 2032. Supporters also highlight the party’s enduring grassroots network, including offices, activists, and local leaders, as a foundation for potential recovery.
However, skeptics argue that the current disarray makes such a revival unlikely in the near term. Voters are hesitant to trust candidates backed by Wike, given the accusations of betrayal surrounding his role in helping the APC win Rivers state in the previous presidential election. Analyst Deji Olarenwaju suggests that the only viable path forward for the PDP is an alliance with either the African Democratic Congress or Peter Obi’s Nigeria Democratic Congress. Without such a coalition, he contends, the party is destined to remain politically marginal.
The situation underscores the fragility of political institutions in Nigeria’s evolving democracy. The PDP’s fall from controlling the presidency and most state governments to holding no significant offices illustrates how quickly power can shift when internal cohesion breaks down. As the election approaches, the party’s ability to present a unified front remains uncertain, with its future hanging on legal rulings and potential strategic partnerships that have yet to materialize.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- BBC World↗Why Nigeria's one-time political giant may face extinction
