The short version
- National MMR vaccination rates for kindergarteners fell to 92.4 percent, moving further from the 95 percent herd immunity threshold.
- Nonmedical exemptions increased to 4 percent nationally, with twenty-four states now exceeding the 5 percent exemption rate that jeopardizes community protection targets.
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released raw data without its traditional analytical report amid ongoing political pressure to reduce recommended vaccinations.
New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicates a continued downward trend in childhood immunization rates across the United States. For the 2025–2026 school year, national vaccination coverage for kindergarteners declined slightly compared to the previous year. The figures show that only 92.4 percent of new students received the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine, a decrease from 92.5 percent in 2024–2025. Similarly, coverage for the DTaP vaccine, which protects against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis, dropped from 92.1 percent to 92.0 percent.
These declines represent a broader shift away from the 95 percent coverage level that public health officials consider necessary to prevent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. The United States had maintained rates near this threshold during the 2019–2020 school year, but subsequent data has shown a steady erosion of community immunity. More than half of all states reported decreases in coverage for MMR, DTaP, polio, and varicella vaccines. Currently, only ten states—West Virginia, Connecticut, Maine, New York, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts, California, and New Mexico—maintain MMR vaccination rates at or above the critical 95 percent benchmark.
While overall vaccination percentages have slipped incrementally, the number of children exempted from school vaccine requirements has risen more dramatically. In the latest reporting period, 4 percent of kindergartners held nonmedical exemptions based on personal or religious beliefs. This marks a significant increase from the 3.2 percent rate recorded in the previous school year. Medical exemptions, which account for children with documented health contraindications, have remained stable at approximately 0.2 percent over recent years.
The rise in nonmedical exemptions poses specific challenges for public health planning because it reduces the pool of children who could potentially be vaccinated through targeted outreach or improved access to care. Unlike barriers related to healthcare availability, which might be addressed through clinics or campaigns, nonmedical exemptions reflect deliberate parental decisions to opt out of recommended immunizations. When exemption rates in a given location exceed 5 percent, that area can no longer realistically achieve the 95 percent coverage target needed for herd immunity.
Geographic disparities in exemption rates are widening. Twenty-four states now report exemption rates at or above the 5 percent threshold, a substantial increase from the fourteen states that crossed this line during the 2023–2024 school year. This expansion suggests that vaccine hesitancy is becoming more entrenched in regions that previously maintained higher compliance levels. The concentration of unvaccinated children in these areas creates pockets of vulnerability where outbreaks are more likely to take hold and spread rapidly.
The release of this data coincides with a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases across the country. Measles cases have reached their highest level in thirty-four years and continue to climb, putting the United States at risk of losing its official elimination status for the disease. The timing of the CDC’s data release underscores the urgency of the situation, as rising case numbers correlate directly with declining vaccination coverage and increasing exemption rates.
The manner in which the data was presented has drawn attention due to changes in agency protocol under current leadership. Unlike previous years, when the CDC published detailed analyses in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, this year’s data was released online without accompanying commentary or vetted publication. This shift occurs amid executive actions aimed at reducing the number of recommended vaccinations, moves that critics argue lack scientific basis and spread misinformation about vaccine safety.
Despite the concerning trends, the CDC issued a brief statement encouraging parents to discuss vaccination options with their healthcare providers. The agency did not provide broader context or recommendations for addressing the rising exemption rates in its data release. As political efforts to undermine childhood immunization programs continue, public health experts warn that the gap between current coverage levels and herd immunity thresholds may widen further without intervention.
The implications of these trends extend beyond immediate disease risk. Sustained low vaccination rates can lead to long-term gaps in community protection, making populations more susceptible to future outbreaks of diseases that were previously under control. The divergence between states with high compliance and those with rising exemptions highlights the uneven nature of public health outcomes across the country.
Moving forward, monitoring these exemption rates will be critical for identifying regions at highest risk for outbreaks. Public health officials face the challenge of addressing both access barriers and ideological resistance to vaccination. Without significant changes in policy or public perception, the trajectory suggests that maintaining herd immunity against vaccine-preventable diseases will become increasingly difficult in the coming years.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- Ars Technica↗US vaccination rates fall again as exemptions continue to rise, CDC data shows
