The short version
- A new far-right movement led by former general Roberto Vannacci is gaining traction in Italy, potentially undermining Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s ruling coalition before the 2027 elections.
- Vannacci’s platform includes controversial proposals such as mass emigration of foreign nationals and reduced support for Ukraine, marking a sharp ideological departure from Meloni’s more moderate conservative stance.
- Meloni has responded by tightening migration policies, but analysts warn that her current strategy may not be sufficient to counter the electoral threat posed by Vannacci’s rising popularity.
Giorgia Meloni’s government recently achieved a historic milestone by becoming the longest-serving administration in Italy’s republican era. This political endurance, combined with a relatively moderate approach to foreign affairs and strong personal approval ratings, has positioned her as a prominent figure on the European right. Her approval rating stands at approximately 41 percent, one of the highest among leaders in Western Europe. Despite these indicators of stability, the landscape for the next general election in 2027 appears increasingly precarious due to emerging challenges from within her own ideological sphere.
The primary threat to Meloni’s re-election prospects stems from a new political movement founded by Roberto Vannacci, a former army general with nearly four decades of military service. Vannacci rose to public prominence after self-publishing a book in 2023 that criticized cosmopolitanism, multiculturalism, and feminism. The publication led to his suspension from the armed forces but simultaneously catapulted him into the media spotlight. His abrasive style and extreme positions have attracted significant attention, allowing him to build a political base that rivals Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party.
Vannacci initially gained political footing through an association with Matteo Salvini’s League, a junior partner in Meloni’s coalition. Salvini sought to leverage Vannacci’s popularity to boost his own declining ratings, resulting in Vannacci’s election to the European Parliament in 2024. However, Vannacci soon departed the League to establish his own party, National Future. Recent polling suggests that this new entity is drawing support away from the League, thereby weakening the overall standing of Meloni’s ruling coalition and raising concerns about its ability to retain power.
Ideological differences between Meloni and Vannacci are substantial, making a potential alliance difficult. Vannacci advocates for the mass emigration of foreign nationals, a policy promoted by radical groups such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany. While opposition to migration is a cornerstone of Meloni’s government, she has not endorsed such extreme measures. Additionally, Vannacci promotes a rigid traditional family model, proposing additional voting rights for parents and advocating for the abolition of femicide as a specific crime. These stances conflict with Meloni’s self-image as a proponent of female empowerment within a conservative framework.
Foreign policy represents another significant point of divergence. Vannacci opposes greater defense integration within the eurozone and has joined the Europe of Sovereign Nations grouping in the European Parliament, an alliance shunned by even the more nativist elements of Meloni’s coalition. Regarding Russia and Ukraine, Vannacci argues that Russia does not pose an imminent threat to Europe and calls for reopening trade and diplomatic channels with Moscow, including the purchase of Russian gas. He also opposes continued support for Ukraine, a stance that directly contradicts Meloni’s international positioning.
Meloni has consistently backed Ukraine, recently criticizing former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to waive sanctions on Russian diesel exports ahead of a harsh winter. This commitment to supporting Kyiv is a key pillar of her foreign policy and distinguishes her from Vannacci’s more isolationist and Russia-friendly approach. The gap in their views on international relations underscores the difficulty of any potential merger or cooperation between their respective movements, despite shared conservative roots.
In response to the growing influence of Vannacci, Meloni has intensified her focus on migration control. Her administration recently suspended Schengen free-movement rules for air and sea passengers from Spain following a tragedy in Ceuta. Additionally, she implemented a 30 percent cap on students of foreign origin in schools. These measures appear designed to address the concerns that Vannacci is exploiting, particularly in the wake of recent unrest in Milan. However, it remains uncertain whether this strategy will effectively neutralize the threat posed by National Future.
The internal dynamics of Meloni’s coalition are also shifting under pressure. Forza Italia, her center-right partner, fears that an alliance with Vannacci would alienate moderate conservative voters. Meanwhile, some members of the League are reconsidering Salvini’s nativist ideology, suggesting a return to the party’s traditional focus on business interests and local communities in northern Italy. As the 2027 elections approach, Meloni faces the complex task of balancing her coalition’s diverse factions while countering a rival who is successfully tapping into the far-right electorate.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian US↗Giorgia Meloni is Italy’s great political survivor. Could one man be about to bring her down? | Riccardo Alcaro
