The short version
- The new Knesset convenes with opposition parties holding a majority but facing internal divisions over coalition partners.
- Former military and intelligence leaders warn of potential violent disruptions aimed at preventing the replacement of the current speaker.
- Gadi Eisenkot holds the mandate to form a government, though he faces hurdles including exclusionary pledges by some Jewish-Israeli parties.
Israel’s newly elected parliament is set to convene, marking a critical juncture for opposition politicians who hold a majority of seats but face significant obstacles in forming a stable administration. The swearing-in ceremony presents the first opportunity for these lawmakers to seize control of key legislative levers, particularly the role of Knesset speaker. This position carries substantial weight because it determines the legislative agenda and controls procedural timelines. Currently, Amir Ohana, a close associate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, holds the post. Replacing him is viewed as a prerequisite for any serious attempt to displace Netanyahu from power.
Security concerns loom large over the proceedings. A coalition of more than 160 retired senior officials from the military, intelligence agencies, and police has issued a stark warning regarding planned disruptions. These former leaders, organized under the banner Democracy’s Protective Wall, alerted active security chiefs that right-wing activists intend to stage violent attacks on the day of the swearing-in. The group fears these actors will attempt to block members of parliament and their families from entering the building. They also noted efforts to mobilize tens of thousands of supporters to assist in this mission, creating a volatile atmosphere surrounding the transition.
Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief who received the presidential mandate to form a coalition, is positioned at the center of these developments. Reports indicate he may assume the role of speaker himself, or alternatively, nominate someone from his Yashar party. The opposition bloc controls 67 seats in the 120-member legislature, providing enough support to install a consensus candidate for speaker. Despite this numerical advantage, the path to governance is fraught with complexity. Eisenkot has pledged to broker a national emergency government, acknowledging that achieving this will require creative and unconventional political maneuvers.
Internal divisions within the opposition remain a primary challenge. Several Jewish-Israeli parties in the change bloc have sworn not to serve alongside Palestinian-led parties, which hold 19 seats and represent approximately 20 percent of Israel’s population. These Arab parties voted in unprecedented numbers this year, making their support mathematically crucial. Without them, the opposition lacks a majority against Netanyahu’s diminished coalition. Eisenkot has warned that compromise is inevitable, stating that no party will be able to fulfill all campaign promises and that leadership involves setting priorities and making difficult decisions.
Protests have erupted across the country, urging Jewish-Israeli opposition leaders to prioritize removing Netanyahu over maintaining exclusionary policies toward Palestinian citizens. Meanwhile, alternative political strategies are emerging. Avigdor Lieberman, a right-wing opposition leader, has explored alliances with ultra-Orthodox parties. These groups have long been allies of Netanyahu but are frustrated by his failure to pass broad military draft exemptions for their community. Lieberman has campaigned vigorously for universal conscription but appears willing to compromise on this issue to avoid working with Palestinian-led parties.
The political landscape is further complicated by the potential for delay tactics. Even if Eisenkot secures a coalition agreement, he may postpone its announcement until after the speaker is replaced. Netanyahu is known for his ability to fracture coalitions through last-minute deals and defections. Ohana could potentially delay signing off on a new government for up to a week, giving Netanyahu time to exploit vulnerabilities in any fragile arrangement. Some opposition members are eager to prevent such delays, fearing they would undermine the momentum needed to unseat the prime minister.
If Eisenkot fails to form a government, the mandate will pass to other leaders. Should they also fail, Israel faces another round of elections. In the interim, Netanyahu and his far-right allies would remain in place as a caretaker administration. Netanyahu has called for a unity government, but political analysts suggest that a prolonged period of limbo followed by new elections offers him a more viable path back to power. Once an alternative government is established, even if it is a minority administration, it becomes significantly harder for Netanyahu to destabilize it through traditional means.
The stakes are high as Israel navigates this transitional period. The ability of the opposition to unite behind a common speaker and form a cohesive government will determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or faces removal. The warnings from former security officials underscore the seriousness with which they view the potential for unrest. As the Knesset prepares to convene, all eyes are on whether the opposition can overcome its internal divisions and external threats to enact meaningful change.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian US↗New Knesset speaker could be key to ousting Netanyahu as Israel’s PM
