The short version
- Polling indicates a narrow contest between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with neither bloc expected to secure an outright majority.
- The campaign has centered on security failures surrounding the October 7 attacks, proposed judicial reforms, and disputes over military conscription for ultra-Orthodox men.
- Exit polls are scheduled for Tuesday evening, after which weeks of political negotiation may be required to form a new government under Israel's proportional representation system.
Israelis are casting ballots in an election widely regarded as one of the most significant in the nation’s recent history. The vote is characterized by high engagement, with reports indicating that approximately 70,000 citizens have returned from abroad to participate and half a million voters will cast ballots for the first time. The outcome remains highly uncertain, as recent polling suggests a near tie between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
Neither political bloc is projected to win the 61 seats necessary to form a majority government independently. This reality ensures that the post-election period will likely involve extensive negotiations to assemble a coalition. Israel’s proportional representation system has historically produced complex alliances, and this cycle appears no different. The race for power has already drawn sharp lines, with unexpected partnerships forming among parties that hold divergent ideological views but share a common goal of removing Netanyahu from office.
Eisenkot leads the newly formed Yashar Party and serves as the central figure in the opposition coalition known as the change bloc. This group includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom hold hardline security positions, as well as left-leaning former general Yair Golan. Despite their ideological differences, these leaders have united to challenge Netanyahu’s tenure. In contrast, Netanyahu’s path to retaining power depends on maintaining alliances with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that currently comprise his governing coalition, which is considered the most right-wing in Israeli history.
Security concerns dominate the campaign discourse. The opposition has heavily criticized Netanyahu for the security failures that preceded the October 7 Hamas-led attacks, which resulted in nearly 1,200 deaths and the abduction of 251 hostages. Critics are pushing for an independent commission of inquiry into the events, a move Netanyahu has resisted by arguing such an investigation would be biased against him. Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to frame himself as the primary guarantor of national security, highlighting strategic military victories in the Middle East and his close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Tensions escalated in the final days of the campaign amid reports that Netanyahu sought last-minute military actions that could have triggered a confrontation with Iran before the election. Israeli media reported that these proposals were opposed by Military Chief Eyal Zamir, while international outlets noted that Netanyahu attempted to persuade Trump to authorize new strikes on Iran, which was reportedly refused. Netanyahu denied both accounts. The controversy intensified when he posted an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv, warning of the dangers if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Eisenkot characterized this rhetoric as hysterical.
Democratic institutions and judicial reforms remain contentious issues. Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption charges, which he denies, and continues to pursue plans for changes to the judicial system that sparked mass protests prior to the October 7 attacks. The opposition argues these efforts threaten democratic norms. Additionally, the issue of military conscription has divided the electorate. Netanyahu’s government has failed to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox Jewish men in full-time religious study to serve in the military, a stance supported by his coalition partners but criticized by others who view it as unfair given the widespread conscription during recent conflicts.
Arab parties, representing roughly one-fifth of Israel’s population, are also participating in the election. While they could theoretically influence the outcome by serving as kingmakers, most leading Jewish parties have ruled out forming coalitions with them. This dynamic limits their immediate impact on government formation but underscores the broader societal divisions at play. As voting concludes, Israelis across the country will gather to watch results emerge, with Netanyahu’s Likud party meeting in Jerusalem and Eisenkot’s Yashar Party assembling in Tel Aviv.
Exit polls are scheduled for publication by Israeli broadcasters at 22:00 local time on Tuesday. These early indicators will provide initial insights into voting trends, though they may vary significantly from final results. The coming weeks will likely involve intense political wrangling as parties negotiate to form a stable government. The election’s outcome will shape Israel’s approach to ongoing conflicts, domestic policy, and its relationship with international allies, marking a critical juncture in the nation’s political trajectory.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- BBC News↗Israel heads to polls for pivotal election defined by security and democracy
