The short version
- Iranian citizens are stockpiling supplies and preparing to flee the capital amid fears that U.S. or Israeli leaders may launch new attacks before or after upcoming elections.
- A naval blockade has severely restricted oil exports, causing currency collapse and soaring inflation for staples like rice and beef, though food availability remains stable.
- Despite economic pressure, Iranian officials maintain a stance of resistance, rejecting the notion that financial pain will force concessions in stalled negotiations.
Anxiety is spreading through Tehran as residents prepare for a potential resurgence of full-scale conflict. With elections approaching in both the United States and Israel, political leaders in Washington and Jerusalem have intensified their rhetoric regarding Iran. This heightened political posture has led many Iranians to brace for renewed violence, with some citizens actively preparing to leave the capital city.
The timing of these tensions coincides with critical voting periods. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a close election result on Tuesday, while U.S. President Donald Trump is approaching midterm elections scheduled for November 3. Both leaders have made aggressive statements; Netanyahu has called for the elimination of Iran’s leadership, and Trump has vowed to complete military objectives in the region. A third aircraft carrier and thousands of additional troops are currently moving toward the Middle East.
Residents on the ground describe a growing sense of unease. Fereshteh Hajipour, a mother of a toddler, reported stockpiling over-the-counter medications and food supplies due to fears of larger bombs and renewed war. Similarly, Hashem Vajdani, a gym trainer, stated he has packed his belongings to relocate to a safer town in northern Iran. These personal preparations reflect a broader community sentiment that the situation could deteriorate rapidly.
Iranian leadership appears to be operating under the assumption that further strikes are inevitable. Sasan Karimi, a former government official and professor at the University of Tehran, noted that Tehran believes Trump will order new attacks regardless of the midterm election outcomes. Consequently, Iranian officials are planning for various scenarios to implement remedial measures. This expectation has led Iran to threaten U.S. military bases and allies in the region, including warnings about potential attacks on undersea data cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
The economic situation in Iran has deteriorated significantly due to a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. This restriction has limited oil exports, which are vital for the government’s revenue. While there are no widespread shortages of food or essential goods, medicine supplies have become scarce. The blockade has also shifted trade routes, causing trucks to pile up at borders as commerce moves overland.
Inflation has surged, eroding purchasing power and pushing the value of the Iranian rial to record lows. Prices for basic staples have risen sharply since the conflict began in March. Rice costs are now more than 60 percent higher, and beef prices have increased by over 150 percent. For middle-class families, affording groceries has become a significant challenge. Mohammad Mohammadi noted that a single supermarket trip can consume half of a monthly mid-range salary.
Despite the severe economic strain, Iranian officials maintain that financial pressure will not alter their negotiating positions. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a parliamentary chief and former negotiator, described economic warfare as the primary axis of the conflict against Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the country faces a dangerous turning point but emphasized the need for consensus within the fractious power structure. Karimi added that Tehran is calculating based on resistance, believing this stance will eventually change the calculations of their adversaries.
Negotiations have shown little progress in recent months. Iran’s president accused the U.S. of disrupting talks, while Trump rejected an Iranian proposal last month to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade. Memories of nationwide protests sparked by economic pressures remain fresh, having occurred just weeks before the war began. As political moderates call for a deal to salvage the economy, the government continues to prioritize resilience over concession.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- PBS NewsHour↗Iranians fear a possible return to all-out war as U.S. and Israeli elections approach
