The short version
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces intense scrutiny as regional elections in two German states test his political viability just weeks after a major far-right victory in Saxony-Anhalt.
- The Christian Democratic Union risks historic losses, including potential elimination from parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the Alternative für Deutschland seeks to expand its influence despite polling short of majority status.
- Merz has canceled international travel to remain in Berlin for the results, vowing to complete his term despite speculation that party insiders may replace him before the next federal election.
Voters in two German states are casting ballots in elections that could determine the political survival of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The contests in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania arrive at a precarious moment for the conservative government, following a significant electoral surge by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt just two weeks prior. That earlier result marked the highest regional performance ever recorded for the anti-immigration party, intensifying pressure on Merz’s administration and raising concerns about the durability of his leadership after only sixteen months in office.
Approximately 2.5 million eligible voters in Berlin and 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will decide the outcome. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. local time on Sunday and closed at 6 p.m., with political leaders closely monitoring exit polls to gauge the extent of any further gains by the AfD. The results are viewed as a critical barometer for Merz’s ability to retain his position, with some analysts suggesting that a poor showing could trigger internal party revolt or even pave the way for snap elections, though such an outcome remains considered unlikely by most observers.
Merz has faced declining public support, with personal approval ratings dropping to 10 percent. His credibility has been undermined by unfulfilled campaign pledges to restore economic growth to Europe’s largest economy and to curb the political rise of the AfD, which currently leads national opinion polls as the largest opposition force in parliament. Despite these challenges, Merz has resisted calls to resign, asserting that he was elected for a four-year term and intends to use that time to guide the country through its current difficulties. He canceled a scheduled appearance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, citing the need to be present in Berlin during the election period.
In Berlin, the political landscape is shaped by a fierce competition between the incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the far-left Die Linke party. Die Linke has campaigned on a platform that includes the expropriation of corporate landlords to address soaring housing costs, a issue resonating in a city where roughly 85 percent of households rent their homes. Advertised rents have nearly doubled since 2014, exacerbating public frustration. The CDU’s position is further complicated by the withdrawal of Mayor Kai Wegner from his re-election bid in July, following controversy over his actions during a power blackout caused by arson last winter. His replacement, chief finance official Stefan Evers, has struggled to improve the party’s standing in polls.
The situation in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania appears even more precarious for Merz’s party. Regional leaders have attributed their poor performance to weaknesses in federal leadership. The AfD and the Social Democrats are engaged in a tight race for first place, while the CDU faces the possibility of securing less than 5 percent of the vote. Such a result would be unprecedented in the postwar era, potentially eliminating the conservatives from the state parliament entirely and dealing a severe blow to Merz’s political standing.
Although polls suggest the AfD will not achieve an absolute majority in either Berlin or Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the party continues to benefit from strong momentum. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD fell just short of a majority that would have allowed it to govern independently, prompting efforts to attract defectors from other parties to form a coalition. This strategy aims to make the AfD the first far-right force to lead a German state since the Nazi era. However, in the current elections, projections indicate the party will remain well below the threshold needed for such dominance, even as it maintains third or fourth place standings in the cosmopolitan capital.
Economic factors play a significant role in the shifting political dynamics. While some indicators have shown improvement under Merz’s leadership, high living costs and deindustrialization in key sectors like automaking, driven partly by competition from China, have weighed heavily on voter sentiment. A reduction in new arrivals at the border has not succeeded in winning back AfD supporters, who are increasingly motivated by economic anxiety, concerns about crime, and opposition to Merz’s firm support for Ukraine. The party’s recent success in Saxony-Anhalt was largely built on mobilizing non-voters, a strategy that opponents hope will be countered by fears of far-right expansion driving higher turnout among other demographics.
Financial experts have noted the growing risk to Merz’s position. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, stated that while he still expects Merz to serve out his full term, the likelihood of a CDU revolt has increased significantly. Schmieding estimated the probability of replacement rose from 20 percent to roughly 35 percent in recent days, citing the impact of rising global petrol prices on an already discontented electorate. The next federal election is not due until 2029, but speculation about early leadership changes within the Christian Democratic Union has intensified as the results from Sunday’s polls come in.
Sources behind this briefing
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- The Guardian World↗Future of German chancellor hangs in the balance as two states go to polls
