The short version
- Incomplete statistics from roughly half of Europe reveal a minimum of 35,000 excess deaths linked to four consecutive record-breaking heatwaves this summer.
- Germany reports the highest individual national toll with an estimated 14,000 fatalities, while Spain and France also see historic mortality spikes that exceed previous records set in 2018 and 2022.
- Final death counts are expected to increase substantially as August data is processed and because heat rarely appears as a direct cause of death on certificates, often masking underlying cardiovascular or respiratory failures.
A series of four consecutive, record-shattering heatwaves has swept across western Europe since May, resulting in at least 35,000 excess deaths according to incomplete provisional figures. These statistics cover only about half of the continent and exclude final totals for August, leading experts to assert that the true mortality count is likely much higher. The extreme weather events have shattered historical temperature records at hundreds of weather stations, with France recording its hottest national average day ever and Germany seeing 46 stations exceed 40C (104F) in late June.
Germany bears the heaviest burden among nations reporting data so far. The Robert Koch Institute, the country’s public health agency, estimated 14,000 heat-related deaths between April 6 and August 9. A significant portion of this toll occurred during a single week in late June, when 9,600 people died. This summer represents the worst period for heat-related mortality in Germany since records began, far surpassing the previous high of 8,900 recorded in 2018. During typical summers, such deaths often remain below 2,000.
Spain has also experienced its deadliest year on record due to extreme heat. Data from the Carlos III health institute attributes 4,947 deaths to high temperatures between May and early August. This figure exceeds the 4,520 heat-related fatalities recorded during the severe summer of 2022. Spain endured persistent temperatures above 42C, contributing to a mortality surge that modeling suggests will continue to rise as more data becomes available.
France reports an initial excess death figure of 7,300 for the period between late May and July 22. This calculation covers 'all causes' of death rather than attributing fatalities directly to heat, which is standard practice in the country until definitive attribution is completed later. The data relies on electronic death certificates that account for only 80% of total mortality. With 98% of the nation under heat alerts at one point and more than 500 stations recording temperatures above 40C, officials anticipate that August figures will add significantly to this count.
Other European nations are reporting substantial increases in mortality as well. The United Kingdom’s health security agency modeled 2,877 heat-associated fatalities in England during the May and June heatwaves. Belgium recorded a 39% increase in mortality during late June, equating to 1,222 additional deaths, while the Netherlands saw at least 900 more deaths than usual between late June and early July. Poland estimated 1,070 excess deaths during the late-June heatwave, and Switzerland reported 220 excess heat-related deaths in the same period.
Smaller nations including Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, and Denmark have each indicated approximately 40 excess deaths. Italy’s data remains fragmented due to reliance on local municipal reporting, which causes significant delays. However, modeling suggests 2,700 more people died than usual in a single week in late June, with epidemiologists projecting a total heat-attributable death toll between 5,000 and 8,000 once formal records are consolidated.
The difficulty in accurately counting heat-related deaths stems from the fact that high temperatures rarely appear as the direct cause of death on certificates. Instead, heat exacerbates pre-existing conditions such as cardiovascular or respiratory diseases, leading to fatal heart attacks, strokes, or kidney failure. Final attribution can take weeks or months, and many countries have yet to release figures for early August. Former German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach noted that current releases are likely underestimates.
Scientists emphasize that human-made global heating is making such extreme events more frequent and intense. The World Health Organization reported in May that heat-related mortality in its European region has increased by more than 30% over the past two decades. This trend is projected to climb significantly due to the ongoing climate crisis and an aging population. Systematically compiled EU-wide data shows that only one other summer week, in July 2022 during the active phase of the pandemic, recorded a higher rate of additional deaths.
As August totals are consolidated, the full scope of this public health emergency will become clearer. The convergence of record-breaking temperatures, delayed reporting mechanisms, and the indirect nature of heat-related fatalities means that current figures represent a floor rather than a ceiling for the death toll. Public health agencies across Europe are preparing for continued strain on healthcare systems as they monitor the long-term impacts of these unprecedented weather events.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian US↗At least 35,000 excess deaths recorded in Europe’s back-to-back heatwaves
