The short version
- Democrats now control state governments in six additional states, bringing them closer to the threshold needed to activate a compact that effectively replaces the Electoral College with a national popular vote.
- While governors in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have expressed interest in joining the agreement, officials in Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan remain noncommittal or focused on other legislative priorities.
- The initiative faces certain legal challenges from conservative groups and potential review by the Supreme Court, alongside opposition from Republican lawmakers who argue it undermines state sovereignty.
The recent midterm elections have reshaped the landscape of American politics in ways that extend far beyond policy debates. With Democrats securing full control over six additional state governments, a long-dormant strategy to alter how the United States elects its president has moved from theoretical possibility to immediate political reality. The sudden shift in power opens a pathway for these states to join an existing agreement among eighteen other Democratic-led jurisdictions. This coalition aims to neutralize the Electoral College by ensuring that the candidate who wins the national popular vote receives enough electoral votes to secure the presidency.
The mechanism at the center of this debate is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Under current rules, states have joined the compact representing a total of 222 electoral votes. The agreement is designed to trigger only when participating states collectively hold at least 270 electoral votes, the majority required to win the White House. Once that threshold is met, member states would pledge their electoral ballots to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of how voters within those specific states cast their ballots. This structure effectively transforms the presidential contest into a nationwide race for total votes rather than a concentrated battle over a handful of swing states.
The recent election results provided Democrats with control in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These six states account for 71 electoral votes. Minnesota had previously joined the compact when it was under Democratic control in 2023, but the new victories in the other five states significantly narrow the gap to the necessary 270-vote threshold. If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were to join the agreement, the coalition would need either Michigan or Arizona to follow suit to reach the critical mass required for activation. The mathematical possibility of achieving this goal has energized supporters who view the Electoral College as an outdated barrier to democratic representation.
Political leaders in some of these newly Democratic states have signaled openness to the idea. Wisconsin Governor David Crowley, whose party now holds a legislative majority for the first time in sixteen years, stated his interest in discussing the elimination of the Electoral College with state lawmakers. Similarly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a potential contender for the 2028 presidential nomination, indicated on a podcast that he believes a national popular vote makes sense and is willing to work with legislators to determine the appropriate mechanism for moving forward. Their comments suggest a growing willingness among Democratic executives to prioritize structural electoral reform.
However, enthusiasm is not uniform across all newly elected Democratic leadership. In Arizona, Governor Katie Hobbs declined to endorse joining the compact during a television interview, emphasizing instead her focus on pressing economic issues such as the cost of living. Nevada presents a more complex history; although the state legislature passed measures to join the compact in both 2019 and 2023, previous governors vetoed or blocked the legislation. In 2019, then-Governor Steve Sisolak argued that the popular vote system would diminish the influence of smaller-population states like Nevada. A spokesman for incoming Governor Aaron Ford stated that while there will be time to discuss presidential elections, the immediate priority remains lowering costs for working families.
Michigan’s stance remains unclear as well. The office of new Democratic Governor Jocelyn Benson declined to comment on whether the state would pursue joining the compact. This hesitation highlights the internal divisions and strategic calculations within the Democratic Party. While some leaders view the compact as a necessary correction to perceived democratic deficits, others are wary of diverting attention from immediate legislative agendas or alienating voters who may value their state’s specific electoral weight.
Opposition to the compact is fierce and organized. Republican lawmakers argue that the Constitution grants states a distinct voice in selecting the president for deliberate reasons. Tyler August, the Republican leader in the Wisconsin Assembly, warned that the compact would undermine constitutional balance and disenfranchise voters by allowing results in other states to override local choices. Conservative groups are expected to launch legal challenges against any state that joins the agreement. If the compact proceeds, these lawsuits could eventually land before the conservative-majority Supreme Court, which would have to rule on whether such interstate compacts violate the Constitution’s framework for presidential elections.
The push for a national popular vote has gained momentum among Democrats following two contentious presidential elections in which the winner of the Electoral College lost the popular vote. The 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, and the 2016 contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, served as catalysts for this movement. Supporters argue that every vote should carry equal weight regardless of geography. Yet, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Even if Democratic governors and legislatures align, the legal battles and political resistance ensure that the fate of the Electoral College remains unresolved for the foreseeable future.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- PBS NewsHour↗Farewell to the electoral college? Democrats now control enough states to elevate the popular vote
