The short version
- Kemi Badenoch has achieved net positive approval ratings, distinguishing her from the broader Conservative Party which voters still view as outdated and divided.
- The party leadership is prioritizing economic policy over culture war rhetoric in an attempt to rebuild voter trust after fourteen years in government.
- Badenoch has ruled out forming a coalition with Reform UK, preferring another general election if a hung parliament results from the next vote.
The Conservative Party gathered in Birmingham for its annual conference with a notably optimistic atmosphere, despite polling data indicating the party remains far behind both Labour and Reform UK. Senior figures, including leader Kemi Badenoch, are publicly discussing the possibility of winning the next general election outright and forming a government. This confidence appears driven by two primary factors: the stabilization of the party’s relationship with right-wing rivals and a surge in personal popularity for its leader.
For months, speculation about defections to Reform UK or potential deals with Nigel Farage threatened to destabilize the Conservatives. That immediate threat has receded, allowing the party to focus on rebuilding its electoral base. Badenoch herself has emerged as a central figure in this recovery effort. Recent polling by More In Common shows she is one of only two party leaders with a net positive approval rating, alongside Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Focus groups describe her as a refreshing presence who speaks directly and without fear.
Badenoch’s performance during Prime Minister’s Questions has been particularly influential in shaping this perception. Observers have characterized her contributions as intelligent, professional, and principled. However, analysts note a significant disconnect between her personal standing and the party’s overall reputation. While voters may trust Badenoch individually, they continue to view the Conservative Party as outdated and internally fractured. This gap presents a major hurdle for any campaign aiming to translate leadership approval into parliamentary seats.
The core challenge facing the Conservatives is a profound deficit in public trust. Voters are skeptical that the party can deliver on its current promises, given its fourteen years in power during which many of these issues remained unresolved. Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake acknowledged this reality bluntly, stating that people trust Badenoch but do not trust the party itself. To address this, the leadership has pivoted away from divisive culture war rhetoric, instead emphasizing a return to traditional conservative economic principles.
Badenoch has clarified her stance on potential post-election scenarios, ruling out any governing arrangement with Reform UK in the event of a hung parliament. She stated she would prefer to call another election rather than enter into such a deal. This position aims to reassure moderate voters while maintaining ideological boundaries. Despite this clarity, internal timelines remain cautious. Hollinrake suggested that an election held immediately would not be ideal, preferring more time for the party to recover fully.
Conversely, deputy leader Alex Burghart emphasized that the party is preparing for a snap election at any moment. He claimed the Conservatives are more united now than at any point in recent history, with the possible exception of the period following Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory. Burghart expressed conviction that the party can win an outright majority. This internal confidence contrasts sharply with external polling, which shows the Conservatives trailing Reform UK by four or five points and lagging behind Labour by as much as nine points.
Strategic considerations for the next election also involve tactical voting dynamics. Former Scottish Conservative leader Dame Ruth Davidson argued that the party must first become one of the top two contenders in public perception. Once that threshold is crossed, voters seeking to remove Labour from power may shift their support to the Conservatives in significant numbers. The party believes it holds an advantage in this regard, with Hollinrake claiming the Conservatives are now the least hated political party in the country.
While being the least disliked option is not a traditional rallying cry, it reflects a pragmatic assessment of the current political landscape. The Conservatives are banking on anti-Labour sentiment and tactical voting to bridge the gap between their current polling positions and electoral viability. As the conference concluded, the mood remained upbeat, though the path to power requires overcoming deep-seated voter skepticism and closing substantial deficits in public opinion polls.
Sources behind this briefing
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- BBC News↗Why Tories are talking about winning the next election
