The short version
- James Cleverly has announced his intention to run for London mayor with a classically conservative platform focused on economic opportunity rather than cultural issues.
- Political analysts suggest his moderate stance is necessary to secure second-choice votes from Liberal Democrats under the restored supplementary voting system.
- The entry of a high-profile Conservative candidate raises questions about whether incumbent Sadiq Khan will seek a fourth term, despite polls showing him likely to win if he stands.
James Cleverly has entered the race for mayor of London, pledging to run a campaign rooted in traditional conservative values centered on enterprise and opportunity. The former home and foreign secretary emphasized that his approach would avoid the culture war issues that have recently dominated the Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. By framing his candidacy around economic pragmatism rather than ideological conflict, Cleverly aims to present a moderate alternative to the party’s current rightward trajectory.
Cleverly explicitly linked his mayoral ambitions to the broader national strategy of the Conservative leadership. He stated that a victory in the capital would serve as a stepping stone for Badenoch to become prime minister, asserting that his local campaign would run parallel to and support her plans for the country. Despite resigning from the shadow cabinet to pursue this role, he denied that his move was a reaction to internal party shifts or a sign of dissent against Badenoch’s direction.
This campaign strategy marks a distinct departure from the previous Conservative mayoral effort led by Susan Hall. Hall faced significant criticism for comments regarding crime in black communities and for engaging with content referencing Enoch Powell, which contributed to her defeat by Sadiq Khan in 2024. Cleverly, who lost his bid to lead the Conservatives to Badenoch, is viewed as a more centrist voice within a party that has moved rightward amid growing support for Reform UK.
Party insiders and allies have sought to clarify Cleverly’s motivations, denying any hidden agenda or rift with the leadership. Giles Dilnot, editor of Conservative Home, suggested that Cleverly is not using the mayoral race as a covert route to party leadership. Instead, Dilnot characterized Cleverly as a normal Londoner whose personality and relatability could appeal to voters beyond just those identifying with the Conservative brand.
The electoral mechanics of the 2028 London mayoral election play a crucial role in shaping Cleverly’s strategy. The restoration of the supplementary vote system means that candidates must secure second-choice votes from supporters of other parties if no one achieves an outright majority. Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics noted that this necessitates appealing to Liberal Democrat voters, who have benefited from the Conservatives’ shift to the right in southern England.
Consequently, analysts expect Cleverly to adopt a pre-Brexit, centrist conservative position to avoid alienating potential swing voters. This approach contrasts with the more confrontational style seen in recent national politics. By focusing on local issues and economic opportunity, Cleverly aims to build a coalition that extends beyond the traditional Conservative base, leveraging his status as a Londoner to counter criticisms of being out of touch.
Cleverly’s entry into the race has intensified speculation about whether incumbent Sadiq Khan will seek a fourth term. Khan, first elected in 2016, has not yet confirmed his intentions. A recent YouGov survey indicated that a majority of Londoners believe Khan should step down to allow for new leadership within the Labour Party. However, polling by the Mile End Institute suggests Khan would still win re-election if he runs, despite increased support for Green candidates.
If Khan decides not to run, several Labour figures are being considered as potential successors, including Dawn Butler, Rosena Allin-Khan, and David Lammy. Cleverly has already begun framing the narrative around Khan’s tenure, suggesting that the current mayor has lost passion for the job. He also criticized Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, for being anti-London, positioning himself as a defender of the capital’s interests against regional rivals.
The upcoming campaign will likely test whether Cleverly can successfully bridge the gap between his conservative credentials and the diverse political landscape of London. His ability to attract moderate voters while maintaining support from his party base will be critical. The outcome may also signal broader trends in British politics, particularly regarding the viability of centrist conservatism in urban centers.
As the May 2028 election approaches, all parties are expected to refine their strategies based on these early developments. Cleverly’s focus on economic opportunity and his avoidance of cultural flashpoints represent a calculated attempt to broaden his appeal. The coming months will reveal whether this moderate approach can withstand the pressures of a competitive multi-party race in one of the UK’s most politically significant cities.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- The Guardian World↗Cleverly avoids culture war issues in pitch to be next London mayor
