The short version
- No hurricane has formed in the Atlantic during September for the first time since satellite monitoring began over three decades ago.
- Strong El Niño conditions are increasing wind shear in the Atlantic, disrupting storm development while fueling intense activity in the Pacific.
- Forecasters indicate a growing likelihood that 2026 will be the only season without a single hurricane in the modern record era.
The Atlantic Ocean has remained unusually calm during what is typically the peak of hurricane season, marking a significant departure from historical norms. For the first time in more than thirty years, no hurricane formed in the basin throughout September. This month usually sees the highest volume of tropical storm and hurricane activity, making the current quiet period statistically rare. With only two months remaining before the official end of the season on November 30, meteorologists are increasingly considering the possibility that this year will conclude without a single hurricane.
If no hurricanes develop in the coming weeks, the 2026 Atlantic season would stand alone in the satellite era as the only one to record zero hurricanes. Historical data shows that while 1914 had no recorded hurricanes, that period predates reliable satellite monitoring, leaving uncertainty about whether storms actually formed but went undetected. The current situation is distinct because modern technology provides comprehensive coverage of the ocean surface, making the absence of confirmed hurricane formation a definitive meteorological event rather than a gap in observational data.
The primary driver behind this suppression of Atlantic activity is a powerful El Niño event. This climate pattern involves the natural warming of waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has profound effects on global weather systems. In the Atlantic, El Niño shifts wind patterns, leading to increased upper-level winds over the region. These stronger winds create significant vertical wind shear, which acts like a shredding force on developing thunderstorms. When wind changes rapidly with height, it prevents storms from organizing and intensifying into tropical storms or hurricanes.
Forecasters had anticipated a quieter season early in the year due to these conditions. In May, the US National Hurricane Center predicted a total of eight to fourteen named storms, with three to six expected to reach hurricane strength and one to three becoming major hurricanes. The current trajectory aligns with the lower end of these predictions or potentially below them. Experts at Colorado State University note that the strong El Niño is likely to continue disrupting wind patterns across the Atlantic, resulting in below-normal activity for at least the next two weeks.
Despite the calm in the Atlantic, four named tropical storms did form in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna. However, none of these systems intensified into hurricanes. All but Edouard remained in the open waters of the Atlantic, failing to make landfall or gain sufficient strength to cross the hurricane threshold. The National Hurricane Center reports no signs of new tropical storm activity or hurricane formation for at least the coming week, reinforcing the trend of suppression.
In stark contrast to the Atlantic's quietude, the Eastern North Pacific has experienced an exceptionally active season. El Niño conditions favor storm development in this region by raising sea surface temperatures and creating more favorable wind patterns. Warmer waters provide additional energy for storms to grow into tropical storms and hurricanes. This year, temperature records have been broken in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific, with daily sea surface temperatures exceeding those set during the strong El Niño of 2015.
The Pacific basin has seen seventeen named storms so far, including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major. The accumulated cyclone energy, a metric that measures the total power of all tropical systems, is currently around two and a half times higher than normal for this time of year. This disparity highlights how El Niño redistributes atmospheric energy, suppressing activity in one ocean while amplifying it in another.
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest that El Niño will continue to strengthen, potentially reaching its peak intensity in November or December. As the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has passed and activity trends downward, the window for hurricane formation narrows. The combination of cooling sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and persistent high wind shear makes it increasingly difficult for storms to organize. Meteorologists will continue to monitor conditions closely, but the structural barriers posed by El Niño remain significant.
The implications of a hurricane-free Atlantic season extend beyond meteorological curiosity. Coastal communities that typically prepare for storm threats may face different risks, such as prolonged dry spells or altered rainfall patterns associated with El Niño. Meanwhile, regions in the Pacific must contend with heightened storm risks. Understanding these shifting dynamics is crucial for emergency management and resource allocation as the year draws to a close.
Sources behind this briefing
Go to the original reporting
- BBC Science & Environment↗Could El Niño mean there are no Atlantic hurricanes this year?
